(Pre)Pre-season Projections

With 146 players in the ALPB Roundup projections, and what should have been Opening Day already in the rearview mirror, let’s take a look at team projections!


Team projections are calculated based on individual projections for players signed by each team, the average free agents available at remaining positions of need, projected playing time, and how teams match up head-to-head against the teams on their schedule.

You’ll likely notice how close (most) of these projected win totals are to each other – far closer than the final 2020 standings will be. In fact, 7 of the 8 teams project to have a winning record. So why is that?

First, Atlantic League teams are still adding players. With every player signing, we learn more about a team’s 2020 roster and what that means for their record. As benches, platoon pairings, and pitching staffs get clarified, team projections will naturally begin to separate from each other. This will all be covered in ALPB Roundup’s official pre-season preview down the road.

Additionally, with all of the complications stemming from Covid-19, the Road Warriors still have no players on their roster. What we know is that the Road Warriors are virtually guaranteed to sign a roster of players well below the usual Atlantic League talent level. Because of this, the league’s other seven teams will all win comparable numbers of games against the Road Warriors, creating even less variance in their records.

So let’s get into this! With rosters and schedules likely to change as we hope for an Atlantic League season in 2020 (a hope bolstered by League President Rick White’s comments that week), we are not doing full division/team/position previews until later this spring. However, below, you can see current projections as well as high-end and low-end projections for each team, broken down by division.

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